Economic and Industry Outlook 2023

The report highlights that the global economic growth buffers have continued to be, on the one hand, private consumption, and, on the other, sources of fiscal support. Inflation’s downward trajectory has continued to consolidate with the normalization of supply chains, base effects in energy prices and some movement towards a broader deceleration in the basket components. As a result, the global monetary tightening cycle has shifted to a more balanced situation between the level of economic activity and price dynamics, albeit subject to an increasingly challenging and stressed geopolitical environment. This context poses a scenario of lower growth for the insurance business, which will affect its more cyclical and credit-linked lines of business, although an improvement in profitability is expected as insurance premium adjustments materialize to adapt them to inflation, and as cost growth moderates and financial income remains supported by interest rate hikes.